BERLIN — Escalating conflict in the Middle East is raising concerns across the global travel industry, as rising oil prices and disrupted air routes threaten tourism growth in 2026. The conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States is already affecting global energy markets, pushing airline fuel costs higher and triggering noticeable airfare increases on several international routes.
The tourism sector had entered 2026 with strong expectations for continued post-pandemic recovery. However, the intensifying conflict across the Gulf region has introduced new uncertainty for airlines, travel companies, and destinations that rely heavily on international tourism.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating Conflict
Since the beginning of hostilities, global oil markets have reacted sharply. On January 9, crude oil prices surged past $115 per barrel, representing a 30% increase within just ten days as geopolitical tensions escalated.
A major factor driving the spike is the disruption of shipping through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, located along Iran’s southern coast. The waterway normally carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, making it one of the most critical energy transit routes globally. The closure of the strait to shipping has immediately pushed fuel prices higher across global markets.
For airlines, higher crude prices translate directly into increased jet fuel costs, which represent one of the largest operating expenses for carriers.
Airlines Face Rising Costs and Route Disruptions
The aviation sector is already feeling the impact. Jet fuel prices have surged to near four-year highs, putting pressure on airline profitability and forcing companies to reconsider ticket pricing strategies.
In addition to fuel costs, airspace closures and disruptions across the Gulf region have forced airlines to reroute long-haul flights, increasing flight times and fuel consumption.
According to data from Skyscanner on March 9, 2026, the impact on airfares is already visible. A one-way economy ticket from London to Singapore has climbed to an average of €1,650, compared with around €650 before the conflict. Flights on the route are operated by carriers such as Malaysia Airlines via Kuala Lumpur and Singapore Airlines.
Similarly, fares between Frankfurt and Mumbai have risen sharply. A one-way economy ticket on Air India now starts at approximately €767, nearly double the typical pre-conflict price.
Tourism Industry Warns of Wider Economic Impact
Industry analysts warn that rising fuel costs could lead to broader airfare increases throughout 2026. Early forecasts suggest that transatlantic fares may increase by around 6–10%, while Asia-Pacific long-haul routes could see increases of 8–15% due to longer flight paths and higher fuel consumption.
Higher travel costs could eventually reduce discretionary spending among travelers, potentially slowing the global tourism rebound that began after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Destinations in the Middle East are expected to experience the most immediate tourism slowdown, but other markets reliant on long-haul travel could also feel the effects if airfare prices continue rising.
Travel Demand Remains Resilient—For Now
Despite the growing uncertainty, tourism experts note that global travel demand remains relatively strong. At the recent ITB Berlin 2026, industry leaders observed that travelers are still prioritizing international trips.
However, analysts caution that if the conflict continues and oil prices remain elevated, global tourism growth in 2026 could slow, with travelers facing higher ticket prices and the aviation sector dealing with increased volatility.
